Confused by Trump's many tariff threats? Here's what's going on

Being confused by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans isn't a flaw — it's proof you're paying attention in the funhouse maze of Trump trade threats.

One minute, he's imposing massive tariffs on Canada and Mexico, then they're delayed, then they're proceeding March 4, then they're not, then they are again, but it turns out he's really talking about more targeted tariffs later. And so on.

A reason it's so confusing is Trump has made a multitude of tariff threats, like an endless geyser of economic menace. 

He tends to slosh these threats together, conflating them when asked about one; then it's left to his aides to clear things up, which is what his White House did Tuesday and his commerce secretary did Wednesday.

So what does all this mean for Canada? Here are three key takeaways.

First, there's no indication whether a massive economy-wide tariff of 25 per cent is coming on March 4, or ever.

Second, different threats could whack Canada over the coming weeks, involving steel, aluminum, and possibly other products.

Third, this confusion may be intentional, in the run-up to the renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement. Creating uncertainty in international trade is a longstanding Trump policy, and it's now happening on steroids.

There are early signs that scared companies are reacting exactly the way Trump would like: by shifting production to the U.S. 

"Create chaos," is how Gary Hufbauer, a decades-long veteran trade-watcher in Washington, describes Trump's strategy.

"That's not a bug [of Trump's trade policy], as they say. That's a feature of Trump. And we'll continue to see that over the next several years."

In a faint-hope bid to shine light into that chaos, here is what we know – and what we don't – about what Trump has planned on trade.

For Canada, here's the big one, Trump's broadest threat: a 25 per cent tariff on virtually everything, with a smaller tariff on oil.

If this tariff actually went ahead, Hufbauer estimates it would quickly shave three per cent off the Canadian economy, triggering a severe recession: "Very painful," he said.