Competitive congressional races on decline due to new redistricting maps
ABC News
Competitive races across the country are expected to disappear as states begin to submit their re-drawn maps for this decade's round of redistricting.
Competitive races across the country are expected to disappear as states begin to submit their re-drawn maps for this decade's round of redistricting.
While only 18 states have finished their gerrymandering process, nearly half a dozen highly competitive seats have been slashed from the last batch of congressional maps according to data tracked by FiveThirtyEight. Instead, swing and lightly safe districts are being transformed into incumbent safe havens, giving Republicans a competitive edge over Democrats in the map overall, with 55 seats leaning Democratic and 90 seats leaning Republican.
On the old maps, drawn in 2011, Republicans had 21 competitive seats and 67 solid seats; this go around, only 12 competitive seats remain while 78 are solidly GOP. Democrats can't bank on the same certainty. Instead, many Democrat-drawn maps have so far added competition, creating six new competitive left-leaning seats and creating no additional safe races.
"There's concern about competition because Republicans don't view their ability to compete in a competitive race as very durable," Doug Spencer, redistricting expert at the University of Colorado's Bryon White Center for the Study of American Constitutional Law, told ABC News. "Republicans did a very good job at gerrymandering in 2010, so they don't have a lot of room to grow, and they do have a lot of room to lose, so they're shoring up now as many of these seats as safely as possible."
