COMMENTARY: When a big lead in the polls isn’t quite what it seems

The Conservatives still face a significant vote efficiency problem. The weakness in the Conservative's nine-point lead lies not in its magnitude but in its distribution.

Ipsos’s most recent poll for Global News shows that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is significantly ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party.

This nine-point lead is the largest we have seen for the Conservatives since the Liberal Party’s support plummeted after the SNC Lavalin scandal before the 2019 election. If an election were to take place tomorrow, a nine-point lead should likely place the Conservatives comfortably in the majority.

However, is a Conservative majority guaranteed? Not yet.

The Conservatives still face a significant vote efficiency problem. As we observed in 2019 and 2021, the Liberals were able to win both elections despite the Conservatives receiving roughly 200,000 more votes each time.

Winning the popular vote but losing the seat count is akin to winning battles but losing the war in politics. The weakness in the Conservative’s nine-point lead lies not in its magnitude but in its distribution.

Similar to the previous elections, the Conservative vote is concentrated in the West. While winning the West is a good start, even if the Conservatives were to win every seat in the region (which is unlikely), it would not be enough to secure a majority. The Conservatives need to make significant gains in seat-rich central Canada, but that’s where their lead diminishes.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are tied with the Liberals in terms of popular vote. This represents a substantial improvement from the last three elections but does not guarantee them a majority of seats in the province.

In Quebec, the Liberals trail the Bloc Québécois, with the Conservatives in a distant third place. Since Brian Mulroney retired from politics in 1992, the Conservatives have struggled to expand their seat count in Quebec. Even with a nine-point lead on the national level, the Poilievre Conservatives have not seen significant improvement in their standing in Canada’s second most populous province.