CNN Polls: Harris has a narrow edge in Michigan and Wisconsin, while she and Trump remain tied in Pennsylvania
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Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a narrow advantage in two of the three “blue wall” states that collectively represent her clearest path to an Electoral College victory over former President Donald Trump, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.
Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a narrow advantage in two of the three “blue wall” states that collectively represent her clearest path to an Electoral College victory over former President Donald Trump, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. In Michigan, Harris holds a lead over Trump by 48% to 43% among likely voters. Harris also leads Trump in Wisconsin, where 51% support her to 45% for Trump. But the race is tied in Pennsylvania (both with 48% support), the largest electoral prize of the three states and a central piece of either candidate’s hopes of winning the White House. All three states broke in Trump’s favor in 2016, but President Joe Biden won them in 2020. Of the seven states rated as tossups by CNN, Michigan and Wisconsin are the only two where voters’ ballots still include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. – the former independent candidate who suspended his bid for the presidency and threw his support behind Trump. In Michigan, Kennedy holds 3% support, and he stands at 1% in Wisconsin. Support for third-party and independent candidates overall runs highest in Michigan, with 6% of likely voters there saying they back a candidate other than Harris or Trump. There is less support for independent and third-party candidates among those likely voters who express the highest motivation to turn out. Among those likely voters who say they’re extremely motivated to vote in Michigan, 51% support Harris to 45% for Trump. In Wisconsin, they break 52% Harris to 47% Trump, and in Pennsylvania, they divide 50% for Harris to 47% for Trump. The overall results are nearly identical to the last round of CNN polling in these three states, conducted in late summer, when Harris led Trump by 50% to 44% in Wisconsin and 48% to 43% in Michigan, with Harris and Trump tied at 47% in Pennsylvania. The vast majority of blue wall state voters have locked in their choices. Just 8% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, 7% in Michigan and 6% in Wisconsin say they haven’t made a choice or could change their minds before Election Day.
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