'Circuit breaker' measures needed to prevent Omicron from overwhelming ICUs, science table says

Ontario's COVID-19 science table on Thursday called for immediate and stringent public health measures to combat a growing surge of the Omicron variant that could see ICU admissions reach "unsustainable levels" early next year.

The group's latest modelling suggests that without "circuit breaker" restrictions to reduce social contacts by about 50 per cent, booster shots alone will likely not be enough to stop daily cases reaching between 6,000 and more than 10,000 per day by the end of 2021.

Such measures, coupled with a sustained booster shot campaign of about 250,000 per day, could keep new cases below 5,000 per day in the same time frame. The most new infections ever recorded in Ontario during the pandemic were 4,812 on April 16, during the peak of the third wave.

"It's not a lockdown, it's not a stay-at-home order. But it does involve a reduction in contacts," said Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the advisory group, who presented the latest forecasts at a news conference in Toronto on Thursday.

 You can read the full presentation at the bottom of this story.

"This will likely be the hardest wave of the pandemic. There is still some uncertainty, but there is an undeniable urgency," Brown said. "Waiting to take action means waiting until it is too late to take action."

Without further additional measures, admissions of COVID patients to critical care could, in an absolutely worst case scenario, reach 600 by the new year, the modelling suggests.

The province has said about 600 ICU beds are available, with nearly 500 more available for surge capacity if needed, but experts have said surgeries will start to be affected once roughly 300 COVID-19 patients are in intensive care.

As of yesterday evening, there were 328 people with COVID in hospital, up from 309 at the same time last week. Similarly, there were 165 patients being treated for COVID-related illnesses in ICUs, up from 155 last Thursday.

Meanwhile, Ontario reported 2,421 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, the most on a single day in seven months and an 88 per cent increase over the same time last week.

Today's additional cases push the seven-day average to 1,676, a 59 per cent jump from last Thursday. 

The science table's most recent estimate has the number of new Omicron-linked cases in Ontario on pace to double every two days or so.

On Wednesday, the provincial government announced some new measures in response to the highly infectious variant.

Among them is an accelerated rollout of COVID-19 booster shots, which will be available starting Monday to residents over 18 whose second dose was at least three months ago.