Change in Bangladesh, the challenges for India Premium
The Hindu
India’s best bet is to work closely with all sections of the Bangladesh people
With events in Bangladesh unfolding at a rapid pace, this writer recalls the events of February 2009 when (now former) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina faced a major crisis within two months of her taking over. The mutiny of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR), a paramilitary force, where the rebels took over the BDR’s headquarters in Dhaka, left 74 dead, out of whom 57 were army officers.
The unrest spread to 12 other towns and cities and posed a direct threat to the fledgling democratically elected government of Sheikh Hasina.
Indian Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon was called back from Colombo by the then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, where this writer was also present, being the Head of Division for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and the Maldives. We took the only available flight, late at night, to Mumbai and then to Delhi to reach early the next morning. Within two hours, the Foreign Secretary began meeting Ambassadors of important countries to convey India’s concern about the unfolding crisis and seeking their understanding in case the situation got worse.
The mutiny failed. It was bound to fail since Ms. Hasina had just come to power riding on “clean” elections with huge backing from women and youth, and without the army’s interference. But in the 15 years of her tenure, all this seems to have been squandered.
The recent elections in 2024 were least inclusive with the Opposition’s boycott, dwindling democratic space, an erosion of human rights, a severe economic downturn and, even more significantly, high levels of unemployment among the youth — a segment of support which had earlier benefited from the sustained economic growth under Ms. Hasina. And when the students’ protests broke out, led by the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement, the fact that it was handled in a ham-handed manner — almost as if they were the enemies of the state, and which saw the use of violence — sealed Ms. Hasina’s fate.
However, Bangladesh Army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, has stepped into a situation that is quite different from what existed when Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed took over in 2007 in a coup. In 2007, one needed the army to bring the anarchy and the violence that was unleashed by both the major political parties under control, restore governance and facilitate elections. The situation demanded a strong man at the top. In 2024, the army is seen more as facilitating the will of the people by driving out a beleaguered Prime Minister and restoring the democratic process. This has also made the army more vulnerable and, therefore, more responsive to public opinion.
A sign of this vulnerability is the acceptance of the students’ choice of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the head of the interim government. Normally, coup leaders nominate lacklustre technocrats to run the country under their tight supervision, and not accept a popular leader who commands widespread respect, internally and externally. But then, the army’s vulnerability may well be the silver lining which Bangladesh is looking for. Mr. Yunus is seen as a passionate supporter of democratic values and the rule of law. He is a known Hasina-baiter, on account of how she treated him. While he did nurse political ambitions and wanted to start his own political party, he is not seen to be close to the two main parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Could this be the springboard he needs to launch a third force in Bangladesh?