CBC News poll suggests United Conservative Party headed for victory in Alberta
CBC
After trailing in the polls for years, the United Conservative Party appears poised to win a majority next Monday, according to a new CBC News poll.
"If you asked me four months ago how I thought this election was going to turn out, I'd say the NDP was going cruise to victory," said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the random survey of 1,200 Alberta voters.
Brown thinks the ruling UCP turned things around with their big-spending campaign promises, beginning in early April.
But Calgary remains competitive — and at least one longtime political watcher says it's too early to count out the NDP.
The UCP leads province-wide with 52 per cent amongst decided or leaning voters, followed by the NDP at 44 per cent.
One in five voters surveyed in the random poll conducted between May 12 -24 are still deciding how they will vote in Alberta's general election on Monday.
CBC News's poll also suggests the gender gap between men and women has disappeared. A survey of Alberta voters last fall found that 51 per cent of women intended to vote NDP, compared to 43 per cent of men.
Men remain more likely to vote for the UCP — but women appear evenly split between the two parties in this most recent poll.
Using CBC News' polling results, Brown predicts the UCP is likely to capture 51 of the 87 seats in Alberta's Legislative Assembly.
In the May 2019 election, the United Conservative Party — a merger of the Wildrose Party and Progressive Conservative Association in 2017 — grabbed 55 per cent of the popular vote and 63 seats in the legislature. The NDP won 24 seats, mostly in Edmonton.
While most Albertans seem to prefer the UCP over the NDP, voters in the Prairie province appear to have identical impressions of the two parties' leaders.
Nearly half of Albertans (47 per cent) somewhat or strongly disapprove of both the UCP's Danielle Smith and the NDP's Rachel Notley.
The two leaders vying for the province's top job each received identical 42 per cent approval ratings.
Smith's campaign attracted a lot of controversy.
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