Canada's difficult road to reaching its 2030 climate goal as another global conference nears

Our planet is changing. So is our journalism. This story is part of a CBC News initiative entitled "Our Changing Planet" to show and explain the effects of climate change and what is being done about it.

Canada's track record has been pretty simple when it comes to climate targets.

Step 1: Set an ambitious goal

Step 2: Largely maintain the status quo

Step 3: Miss goal

Step 4: Set new goal

The historical pattern holds true with past agreements struck in Rio, Kyoto and Copenhagen. To meet the Paris target and the federal government's revised target unveiled this summer, considerable change is necessary.

Canada is sending a delegation to the United Nations climate change conference, COP26, in Glasgow, which begins on Sunday, as world leaders try to set new emissions reduction goals to address climate change.

What's clear is that meeting current climate goals in Canada won't be simple, won't be cheap and will require more than just one or two industries to chip in.

The federal government released its plan for how emissions could be cut in the next decade to meet the original 2030 goal of a 30 per cent reduction compared with 2005 levels. Citing a combination of current policies — such as the escalating carbon tax, the coal phaseout and the Clean Fuel Standard — with industry trends such as energy-efficiency improvements, the country would be able to lower its emissions by about 200 million tonnes.

Home energy retrofits, increasing adoption of electric cars and strengthened methane reductions are also necessary.

Still, considering Canada's past performance, there are many skeptics about how achievable this road map will actually be.

In addition, Ottawa upped its goal this past summer, now hoping to drop carbon emissions by between 40 and 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. That means an additional 50 million to 90 million tonnes of CO2 reductions on top of the original 200 million tonnes.

Canada's oil and gas sector — and the oilsands in particular — will face significant challenges if the country is to reach its greenhouse gas (GHG) targets.