Calgary Confederation could be bellwether for Liberal fortunes in 2025 election

If the Liberals are going to turn their current lead in the polls into a majority government, ridings like Calgary Confederation are where some experts will be watching closely.

While Alberta typically only has a handful of hotly contested seats each federal election amid a sea of Conservative blue, a handful seats can suddenly mean a great deal this year.

Pollster Janet Brown told The National last week that the Liberals will likely need to win four or five seats in Alberta if they want to win a majority government, adding that Calgary Confederation is one urban riding to keep an eye on.

"That's almost like a bellwether riding for whether the Liberals are going to win a minority or a majority," Brown said.

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Ever since Calgary Confederation was first created ahead of the 2015 federal election, its voters have elected Conservative MP Len Webber to represent them in Parliament.

The urban, densely populated riding stretches from the Bow River in the south to John Laurie Boulevard in the north, and from Sarcee Trail in the west to Deerfoot Trail in the east.

Even prior to Webber's three-term stint as MP, the area has a long history of sending members from the right side of the political spectrum to Ottawa. The riding is largely comprised of what used to be Calgary Centre-North and Calgary West, electoral districts that were often represented by Conservative MPs like Stephen Harper, Jim Prentice and Rob Anders.

But in late March, Webber announced he wouldn't seek re-election this spring. He told The Calgary Eyeopener earlier this month that while he felt he had one more campaign in him, he knew it was time to move on.

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University of Calgary political science professor Melanee Thomas says Webber's departure adds uncertainty to what she previously predicted to be a likely Tory victory. Even after his departure, she argues she'd still predict a Conservative win due to the riding's voting record.

"When anybody wants to say that a Calgary seat is in play, I would want strong local data. I have not seen that," Thomas says. 

"It's going to be closer than I think it usually would, but if I was going to bet $10, I would still bet on the Conservative candidate taking it."

Former UCP MLA for Calgary-Klein, Jeremy Nixon, is stepping in to replace Webber. Nixon served one term in the provincial legislature before being unseated by the NDP in 2023.