Billion-dollar election platforms pose threat to 8-year streak of N.B. budget surpluses

New Brunswick is on pace to post its eighth straight budget surplus this year. 

It's the longest streak in Canada but may be at risk no matter how Monday's election turns out, given the budget-busting election platforms being promoted by the province's three major political parties.

Over the last month, New Brunswick Liberals, Progressive Conservatives and Greens have made commitments to voters for the next four years that total, by their own math, between $1.3 billion and $3.2 billion. 

The priciest of those three belongs to the Green Party. Last week, its leader, David Coon, told reporters he had no idea how much of a deficit his party's $3.2 billion in platform commitments will generate if he is called on to form a government after Monday's election and is able to implement everything the party has promised

"It's impossible to say right now until we get into the books and work with the folks in the Department of Finance and Treasury Board and really go through the numbers," said Coon about the potential size of Green Party deficits.  

"We'll dive into that right after the election."

Coon is not pretending his party's platform will be easily affordable. But that's not the case with Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, who have unveiled billion-dollar plans of their own

With limited explanations, both parties have pledged those costs will not generate a deficit if they are elected, despite evidence New Brunswick is entering a period of tightening finances.

Last winter, long-range projections pieced together by the province's Finance Department showed that surpluses in New Brunswick are on a trajectory to narrow to $39 million and $30 million in the first two budgets following this year's election, excluding any election promises.

In describing what that means in his latest budget speech in March, Finance Minister Ernie Steeves warned that financial wiggle room available to the province following several years of record surpluses is rapidly shrinking.

"Revenue is not anticipated to continue the pace of growth seen in recent years, and maintaining spending growth at current levels will not be sustainable over the longer term," he said.

"I must remind New Brunswickers that we must continue to be diligent in managing our finances."

Despite that warning issued from within its own ranks, Progressive Conservatives are proposing in their platform to cut sales tax revenue and increase spending on some health initiatives by a combined $1.7 billion over a full four-year mandate. That includes costs of $763.4 million in the next two budget years.

Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs argues that is affordable in part because cutting taxes will generate new economic activity and help pay for itself.