Beef sector caught in the crossfire of Trump tariff threats
CBC
Ahead of the U.S. president-elect's rapidly approaching inauguration, many Canadians are anxiously awaiting what could be a turbulent start to a second Donald Trump term, as threats of sweeping tariffs continue to dominate headlines.
For a dynamic industry like agriculture, a sector that's used to planning ahead and adapting to changes in weather and fluctuating commodity prices, the possibility of tariffs coming as soon as Monday is difficult to brace for.
Those with a stake in the beef industry are specifically concerned about how tariffs will impact their highly integrated Canada-U.S. supply chain. Beef production often requires multiple trips back and forth over the border and such levies could cover every trip.
"It has the potential to really be devastating for our industry in Canada," said Keith Gregory, chair of the Alberta Cattle Feeders' Association.
He's also vice-president of Cattleland Feedyards near Strathmore, Alta., a feedlot built in the 1970s that houses over 16,000 cows.
Gregory's operation is family-owned, his parents purchasing the place in the early 2000s, and he's been working there for the past 20 years. While he doesn't buy any cows from the United States, he does ship fat cattle to American businesses.
"It's causing a lot of stress. It's causing people to make decisions that they probably otherwise wouldn't have made. And it's not just stress for the feedlots, it's right down to the ranchers," he said.
He noted some producers are trying to forward contract cattle — a way for sellers and buyers to lock in prices for their livestock ahead of time — in order to maintain expected profits.
With so much uncertainty, this is one of the only measures he believes can be taken right now.
"It's unfortunate," he said, after being asked if people like him feel they're being caught in the crossfire of negotiations that could lead to an all out trade war.
Overall, the agriculture sector generated nearly seven per cent, or $150 billion, of Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) last year. Notably, beef production contributes around $21.8 billion to Canada's GDP, on average.
Gregory explained that retaliating against the U.S. by restricting trade could cause an oversupply of livestock, meaning the price Canadian sellers receive for cattle could drop significantly.
Alberta is the source of the majority of Canadian beef exports, and Gregory said the tariff threat is taxing to even try to plan for, considering how intertwined the two countries' markets are.
"It's not really an American industry and a Canadian industry.… I'm not sure [Trump] totally understands the ins and outs of our industry."
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