B.C.'s rolling average of new cases went down yesterday. Here's why it doesn't matter
CBC
When it comes to understanding the pandemic, what numbers matter?
That's at the heart of discussions taking place in British Columbia and jurisdictions across the world as the number of Omicron cases explodes.
"We are in a different storm now," said B.C. Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry this week, one of several times she has alluded to the new realities of this wave of COVID-19.
And that extends to the number we've used most often to gain an understanding of our pandemic fight: case counts.
For the longest time, they were a reliable proxy for understanding the pandemic. But that's no longer the case, say people who have analyzed pandemic statistics since the beginning.
"The short answer is not with anything like the certainty we had even a month ago," said Daniel Coombs, head of University of British Columbia's mathematics department and member of the independent B.C. COVID-19 modelling group.
It's why even though the rolling average of new cases in the province went down yesterday for the first time since the Omicron wave began, nobody is taking it as a sign that the corner has been turned.
Coombs says there are two reasons for the change.
The first is the well-documented testing capacity issues in B.C. over the past couple of weeks, and the decision to give rapid tests to many people who show up to testing sites — which are not included in the official numbers.
At the moment, these capacity issues can be seen most clearly in Vancouver Coastal Health, where the official number of daily cases has stayed static for two weeks, despite cases continuing to rise virtually everywhere in Canada.
The second is the decreased virulence of Omicron for many who contract the virus. It means more people who get COVID-19 in this wave will display minor symptoms, and a smaller percentage of people will end up being hospitalized.
Case counts have always been a snapshot, and have never measured every infected person in the province.
However, Coombs said these changes mean cases are much less helpful for modelling if transmission will go up or down, or for predicting hospitalizations.
"We're forced to extrapolate from data from other countries [further along the Omicron wave], in particular the United Kingdom," said Coombs.
Run 3 Space | Play Space Running Game
Traffic Jam 3D | Online Racing Game
Duck Hunt | Play Old Classic Game
Three years after approving an anti-racism strategy, Edmonton city council has decided on the parameters for an independent body to oversee efforts within the community.
A Surrey, B.C., man says two recent shootings at his businesses are connected to ongoing extortion attempts targeting the South Asian community.
The only Friday the 13th of the year is coming up this week and for Port Dover, Ont., that means the return of the famous biker rally.
Stellantis workers at the Windsor, Ont., assembly plant are returning to two full shifts a week earlier than previously expected.
As Alberta faces the prospect of another summer plagued by wildfire smoke, experts are urging people to monitor conditions and take steps to protect their long-term health.
Before Justin Gill began working at NorWest Community Health Centres (NWCHC), he thought fentanyl was the most toxic substance impacting drug users in Thunder Bay, Ont.
A crumbling façade is just the beginning of several major structural issues plaguing Elizabeth Zielger Public School (EZPS) in Waterloo, according to a long-awaited engineering report released Wednesday.
P.E.I.'s auditor general says the province's net debt, the highest in the province's history, is unsustainable.
A handful of Indigenous governments want to see more criteria enshrined in the conditions of Diavik diamond mine's new water licence, to determine that water will be safe for cultural uses.
Global trade will be a major focus at next week's G7 summit as world leaders gather in Alberta, including U.S. President Donald Trump, who will be making his first appearance at a major international event since returning to the White House in January.
Moments after he was shot in Toronto's Weston neighbourhood Saturday night, a teenage boy lay bleeding out in front of a local health-care centre — and one witness says her repeated cries for help at the facility's front door were ignored.
A wanted fugitive accused of being the ringleader of a grandparent scam has left tenants in two southwestern Ontario cities with a host of maintenance issues and no one to turn to for help.