B.C. COVID-19 modelling shows what the province's caseload would look like without vaccines

B.C.'s latest modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic shows transmission of the coronavirus flat or declining across the province, with a previous spike in cases among children seemingly over.

B.C.'s latest modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic shows transmission of the coronavirus flat or declining across the province, with a previous spike in cases among children seemingly over.

COVID-19's reproductive number is at or below one in all regions of the province, meaning each new confirmed infection is spreading, on average, to just one other person, or fewer.

That's a recipe for continued declining cases, something health officials attribute to widespread vaccination.

B.C.'s medium-range projection, however, assumes a reproductive number of 1.07, with cases remaining relatively flat at their current levels, according to the slides presented by provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry in a news conference Thursday afternoon.

Currently, B.C. is seeing just over 500 new cases of COVID-19 per day, down from a high in the mid-700s earlier in the fourth wave.

Without vaccination, the modelling presentation suggests, the virus' reproductive number would be 3.43, and cases would be growing exponentially, surpassing 8,000 per day in a matter of just a few weeks.

Both projections are based on the existing rules put in place to stop the spread of the coronavirus. If there were no vaccines, B.C. would almost certainly need stricter regulations to keep the virus in check and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.