Atlantic hurricane season outlook updated, more storms expected
CBC
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has updated its outlook for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecasters on Thursday increased the likelihood of an above-normal season to 60 per cent, which is up from a 30 per cent chance in the outlook the agency issued in May.
The earlier projection of 12 to 17 named storms has now increased to 14 to 21 storms.
Of those storms, six to 11 could become hurricanes. Of those, two to five may become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.
It's important to remember that these outlooks are for overall season activity, not storms that make landfall.
Heading into the season, it was thought that a developing El Niño could limit tropical storms and hurricane activity. When a warmer-water El Niño event is underway in the Pacific, stronger wind shear occurs over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean. This wind shear can suppress the development and growth of tropical storms and hurricanes.
While El Niño has developed, its impacts on the tropical region are now looking less likely to counterbalance the other major factor of this season — warm ocean temperatures.
While temperatures in the North Atlantic were expected to be above average, the record warmth in the basin has been making headlines over the past few months.
While the largest sea-surface temperature anomalies are currently around Atlantic Canada and Greenland, the tropical Atlantic and main storm development region is also running well above average.
The warmer ocean temperatures in the tropics will be key, with the West African monsoon season expected to be near-to-above average.
Large areas of thunderstorms off the coast of Africa are the seeds for tropical systems, especially when they roll into ocean water that is running warmer than normal.
While we can't ultimately tell where and when these storms will occur, we do know that the month of September is historically the most active.
With damage from post-tropical storms Fiona in 2022 and Dorian in 2019 fresh on the minds of Atlantic Canadians, we really don't need a reminder of how destructive these storms can be.
The updated outlook is a good reminder that the time to be ready and prepared is almost here.
Run 3 Space | Play Space Running Game
Traffic Jam 3D | Online Racing Game
Duck Hunt | Play Old Classic Game
As Alberta's measles outbreaks grow, researchers are now watching the province's wastewater for the highly contagious virus and hoping to determine if the technology could eventually serve as an early detection tool.
On the community's fourth day without power, Pikangikum First Nation's chief says the situation is becoming dire.
The two pieces were buried under the earth for possibly more than 12,000 years. This summer, they were accidentally unearthed on a Paris, Ont., dairy farm.
Four police cadets will have their tuition covered by a new sponsorship program being offered through Charlottetown Police Services, the city's interim police chief says.
Nunavut's Court of Appeal has upheld an appeal and reduced the sentence for a former Iqaluit RCMP special constable convicted of sexual assault from nine years in prison to four.
Belinda Sarkodie left Ghana in 2024 to seek refuge in Canada. On Friday, she was killed in Hamilton while she was with a friend and they were waiting for a bus.
A Toronto developer is under investigation after a much-loved tree on a Leaside lot was cut down without a permit, city staff say.
As the region enters its third day of an intense heat wave, health officials are warning people to stay hydrated and watch for signs of heat exhaustion.
U.S. President Donald Trump is squaring off against American cities — and in the last few weeks, he's implied that he would use the powers of the presidency to order a federal takeover of New York City and Washington, D.C.
Via Rail wants to use refurbished railcars to improve service between Halifax and Montreal, but the CEO of the Crown corporation can't say whether doing so will increase the frequency of trains on the line.
A Fredericton psychiatrist could permanently lose his medical licence after choosing not to contest allegations of sexual misconduct at a disciplinary hearing on Tuesday morning.
Firefighters being hit in the face with a metal pole, punched in the stomach and threatened with death by a person who woke up from a possible overdose and pulled a knife on them are among the latest violent incidents the head of the union for firefighters in Winnipeg says highlight the need for legislative change to protect first responders.
One person has been arrested after a small passenger aircraft was allegedly "hijacked" and landed at Vancouver International Airport Tuesday, according to Richmond RCMP.