As the 4th wave picks up steam in Manitoba, the window is closing to avoid another ICU crisis

If COVID-19 continues to spread in Manitoba at the current rate, the daily case count in this province will be above 500 by the middle of November.

This is not inevitable. It's not even a projection.

It's just arithmetic, based on COVID case counts since the third week of September, when the fourth wave of the pandemic began in earnest in Manitoba.

On Sept. 21, the seven-day average daily case count in Manitoba was 60. One week later, on Sept. 28, the running average had risen by 30 per cent to 78.

On Tuesday, after another week went by, the case count had risen an additional 35 per cent to 105.

If the running average continues to rise 30 per cent a week, Manitoba will cross over the 300-case-a-day line shortly after Halloween and hit the 500-case mark a few sleeps after Remembrance Day.

While this progression is not inevitable, the growth in COVID cases over the past two weeks is enough to justify the chief provincial public health officer's contention the province is seeing COVID growth along the lines of the "severe" fourth-wave scenario included in public health projections back in August.