As Russia's war strays over Ukraine's border, NATO is tested again

The military and geopolitical tightrope NATO has been walking since the onset of major hostilities in Ukraine was given a good shake Tuesday with an apparently inadvertent missile strike inside the Polish border.

Multiple experts say they're surprised such an event hadn't happened sooner, given the wild, capricious nature of Russia's air campaign.

A missile — apparently an S-300 anti-aircraft missile — that crashed in the village of Przewodow along the border likely came from Ukraine's air defences and was not the result of a Russian strike, Polish and NATO officials said Wednesday.

The statement eased international fears that the nearly nine-month-old war could spread across the border.

The fog of war, bad enough at the best of times, would have been made worse in the initial few hours by Moscow's tendency to deflect, deny and deceive, said Canada's former top diplomat at NATO.

"The first thing they would have been trying to ascertain is the facts," said Kerry Buck, who was Canada's permanent representative to NATO between 2015 and 2018.

"For quite a while now, Russia has understood that if it's difficult to attribute an act to someone, to a state, it's hard for NATO to make a decision. And in a way that's almost been Russia's modus operandi."

On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Voldomyr Zelenskyy continued to insist his country was not responsible for the strike, saying he had confidence in his military's assessment that it was not a wayward anti-aircraft missile. He offered Ukrainian expertise to aid in the ongoing international investigation, being led by Polish authorities.

At NATO headquarters in Brussels, officials would have relied on a series of surveillance reports, including airborne early warning systems that track missiles.

"NATO would have been focusing on getting the facts as soon as possible, and they would have been fairly cautious until they got those facts," said Buck.

Another major aspect of the discussion on Wednesday would have been how to respond, given the fine line the alliance has walked since Russia's invasion. NATO as an institution has provided non-lethal assistance, but individual members, including Canada, have stepped up with weapons systems and ammunition.

"They would have been talking about next steps," said Buck, who noted the loose association of countries arming Ukraine, known as the International Contact Group, met in the aftermath of the tragedy that took the lives of two Polish civilians. "So, next steps would include more air defence support for Ukraine."

A Washington-based think-tank, the Institute for the Study of War, noted in its assessment that the airstrikes launched against Ukraine on Tuesday were the largest carried out against Ukrainian critical infrastructure since the start of the war.

The Ukrainian Air Force estimated about 100 Kh-101 and Kh-555 cruise missiles were fired at targets in the country. The country's general staff reported that Ukraine's air defences shot down 73 cruise missiles and 10 drones. Those figures could not be independently verified.