As rabies pops up in the North again this year, researchers look to predict future outbreaks

Susan Tulugarjuk was walking to work in Igloolik one morning in December when she felt something bite the back of the leg.

"I looked back, and there was a fox," she recalled. "It attacked me from the back. I didn't see it."

The bite itself wasn't too bad, but the bigger concern was rabies.

It's been a banner year for rabies in Canada's Arctic, with infected foxes showing up in several communities. Dogs have been attacked and sometimes killed. 

Health officials have been issuing regular warnings to communities. Last week, people in Tuktoyaktuk, N.W.T., were cautioned about two dogs that showed signs of rabies.

Tulugarjuk got her shots. The disease can be fatal if left untreated. Today, she's recovered but the whole thing has left her a little spooked. 

"I started bringing a stick with me everytime I go out... just in case, you know," she says.

"I started getting scared of dogs. I'm usually not scared of them."

Rabies are not new in the Arctic — documented cases go back decades.

But many researchers are now working to predict the periodic peaks in infection, like this winter's outbreak in Nunavut.  

"It's something that's enzootic — so it's always present in Arctic fox populations," said Brian Stevens, a wildlife pathologist for the Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative. He's based in Ontario and the Nunavut government referred questions to him instead of a local biologist.  

"We see these cycles of outbreaks where there seems to be a higher prevalence of the virus in the population," Stevens said.

Typically, local outbreaks happen on a 10- to 15-year cycle, Stevens said, with some outbreaks more severe than others.

"This is nothing new," said Ben Kovic, who was a Nunavut conservation officer for more than 20 years and also served as chair of the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board.