As Election Day Nears, Democrats Test Just How Powerful Abortion Really Is
The New York Times
They hope the issue helps their candidates. But some voters may support Republican candidates as well as abortion-rights ballot measures.
With Election Day closing in, there are signs that a small but crucial segment of voters may back both abortion rights and Republican candidates, a dynamic that could hurt Vice President Kamala Harris in swing states and other Democratic candidates in pivotal races.
Ten states have abortion rights measures on the ballot this year, and Democratic activists express confidence that most will pass, just as every similar state measure has won approval since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022.
But they remain less certain about how many of these newly engaged abortion rights voters will then support Democratic candidates.
“The central question is, how much does abortion persuade people to vote for Democrats?” said Angela Kuefler, a Democratic strategist working on several abortion rights measures. “The issue itself is still of utmost importance to people. It is still a big driver when it comes to their vote decision. The question is just the ceiling.”
In Arizona and Nevada, the presidential race is tight, but measures enshrining abortion rights in state constitutions are expected to cruise to victory. In Montana, Democrats are struggling to hold a Senate seat but expect to pass a similar abortion rights referendum. And in Missouri, voters appear ready to back an abortion rights measure while also re-electing Senator Josh Hawley, one of the strongest opponents of abortion rights in Congress.
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