Apple’s iPhone 16 hasn’t gotten a hot start, analysts estimate, but some still counting on ‘super cycle’

Apple had been counting on new artificial intelligence features to make the iPhone 16 a major hit. But pre–sale estimates point to a more muted early response than Apple had hoped.

Apple had been counting on new artificial intelligence features to make the iPhone 16 a major hit. But pre–sale estimates point to a more muted early response than Apple had hoped. Apple needed the iPhone 16 to be a big seller after years of sluggish iPhone sales. Long gone are the years when loyal Apple fans would line up to trade in their device on a near-annual basis, and the company hasn’t given consumers a big reason to upgrade since adding 5G connectivity with the iPhone 12. It’s been hoping that a suite of new software features that weave AI throughout would be a hit. But despite several splashy launch events, it’s not clear if Apple has successfully made the case to consumers just yet. Apple sold just an estimated 37 million units in the first weekend of iPhone 16 pre-sales, down more than 12% compared to the same period last year, according to a blog post from Ming-Chi Kuo, an Apple analyst with TF International Securities. In particular, demand for the higher priced iPhone 16 Pro devices were down sharply year-over-year compared with the iPhone 15 launch. One week after pre-sales began, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives pegged pre-sales only slightly higher than Kuo’s estimate at roughly 40 million units. CFRA Research technology analyst Angelo Zino also said the first weekend of preorder sales data pointed to a year-over-year decline. Perhaps more than the number of devices customers bought during presale season, Apple may need to worry about which phones in the iPhone 16 lineup consumers are opting for, given that the upgrades to the standard devices make them comparable in many ways to the Pro models. Analysts say there appears to have been greater demand for the lower priced iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus devices than the Pro and Pro Max, which could affect the average selling price and overall iPhone sales revenue.