Analysis | India cheers the return of 'King Coal' as industry sees buoyant future Premium

The coal industry’s confidence in a prosperous future for itself stands in contrast to India’s commitment to “phase down” coal-fired power generation and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2070

India's coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand, rising supply from new mines and strong demand for imports.

"King coal is coming back and coming with a big bang," Anil Kumar Jha, the chairman of Jindal Power Ltd., told the Coaltrans India conference, held this week for the first time since February 2020.

The sentiment was echoed by virtually every speaker at the event, although there was a wide variety of views as to how successful India will be at ramping up coal domestic coal output, and how quickly this can replace imports.

The industry's confidence in a long and prosperous future for itself stands in contrast to India's commitment to "phase down" coal-fired power generation and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2070.

There was no talk at all of phasing down coal at the event, rather the debate centred on just how high India's coal demand will rise, with the consensus being it will jump to around 1.4 billion tonnes per annum by 2030 from around 1 billion tonnes currently.

As is always the case, the trick is separating the hype from the reality, and also distinguishing between short-term market dynamics and long-term trends.

The reality is that India has successfully increased domestic coal output, with official government figures released last week showing production in the first 10 months of the fiscal year that started in April 2022 reached 698.25 million tonnes, up 16% over the same period a year earlier.