America votes: How a Harris or Trump win could impact Canada-U.S. trade
CTV
With the current North American free trade agreement up for review in 2026, the next U.S. president will have the power to press for changes or preserve the status quo.
As we move closer to the U.S. election, CTVNews.ca will be examining the relationship between Canada and the U.S. in a series of features.
Canada's economy is intricately tied to the U.S., with nearly 80 per cent of all exports going to its neighbour. While Donald Trump's first presidency upended trade relations, President Joe Biden has overseen a return to relative stability. Vice President Kamala Harris, however, was once a vocal critic of North American free trade pacts like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement(USMCA) and its predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA).
"No matter who is the U.S. president in 2025, Canada's economy would be affected by a trade protectionism, just to different degrees," Carleton University political scientist Aaron Ettinger told CTVNews.ca. "Either way, Canadians will need to be alert."
With the current USMCA trade agreement up for review in 2026, the next U.S. president will have the power to press for changes or preserve the status quo. Here's how a Trump or Harris presidency could impact cross-border trade and Canada's economy:
Donald Trump's 2016 to 2020 presidency was a rollercoaster for Canada-U.S. relations. The countries' typically stable trade partnership was shaken by Trump's push to replace the NAFTA continental free trade agreement, and the imposition of hefty tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel during negotiations.
"Trump's attitude towards protectionism and tariffs goes back decades so it came as no surprise that he waged economic war with enthusiasm during his presidency," Ettinger said. "I would expect a 2025 Trump presidency to return to that pattern with greater aggression."
The new USMCA agreement that went into effect in 2020 also contains a unique review clause, and by its sixth anniversary on July 1, 2026, the U.S., Mexico and Canada will have to confirm in writing if they wish to extend the pact. If any country wants to tweak the trade agreement, it will spark a lengthy review process.
