All eyes on weather as wildfire burns west of Fort Nelson, B.C.

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Weather conditions are expected to play a crucial role as firefighters continue to battle a wildfire west of Fort Nelson, B.C., in the province's northeast on Wednesday.

The Parker Lake wildfire is burning over an area of approximately 84 square kilometres as of 9 p.m. local time on Tuesday, around 2.5 kilometres from Fort Nelson. Its rapid growth on Friday caused more than 4,700 people to leave the community and the nearby Fort Nelson First Nation.

While calmer conditions on Tuesday helped firefighters, who said the blaze grew south and away from the community, things could change rapidly as unsettled weather is forecast for the region.

In a video update posted 10 p.m Tuesday, the B.C Wildfire Service said that while the Parker Lake fire had not grown substantially on Tuesday, the same could not be said for the Patry Creek fire, which reignited earlier this year after going dormant at the end of 2023.

Fire behaviour specialist Ben Boghean said the fire had experienced an "aggressive rate of spread" through Monday and into Tuesday morning.

"This aggressive rate of spread and fire growth now places the Patry Creek 25 kilometres north of Fort Nelson," Boghean said.

The fire was measured at around 465 square kilometres as of Tuesday evening, and had been upgraded to a wildfire of note, defined by the service as a fire that is "highly visible" or poses "a potential threat to public safety." 

Boghean said as of 5 p.m. Tuesday, the fire did not pose a risk to Fort Nelson but warned "that can rapidly change if the area receives strong northerly winds and continuous dry conditions."

Premier David Eby told reporters on Tuesday that the situation was still very fluid, and very dependent on weather conditions in B.C.'s parched northeast. The B.C. Wildfire Service (BCWS) said Tuesday that conditions in the Fort Nelson fire zone are still very receptive to fire growth.

The BCWS and Rob Fraser, the mayor of the Northern Rockies Regional Municipality (NRRM) which includes Fort Nelson, had both warned last weekend that the fire could have hit the community if winds pushed it eastward — but those anticipated winds ultimately did not come to pass.

"If we can get to Wednesday or Thursday, where there's predictions of rain, we're going to really be able to corral this thing," Fraser said in an update around 9 p.m. MT on Tuesday.

Environment Canada says a low pressure system will bring up to 20 millimetres of rain, and possibly thunderstorms, to the area near Fort Nelson on Wednesday — but warns that most of the precipitation may likely lie south of Fort Nelson.

Fort Nelson is located around 1,000 kilometres north of Vancouver and around 800 kilometres northwest of Edmonton.