Albertans say they aren't afraid of transitioning away from oil

EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News and The Road Ahead commissioned this public opinion research in mid-October, starting six days after Danielle Smith won the leadership of the United Conservative Party.

As with all polls, this one is a snapshot in time. 

This analysis is one in a series of articles to come out of this research. 

The "energy transition" is often a toxic term in the province's politics, but Albertans are now looking at that transformation in a different light. 

They might not be ready to say goodbye to oil, but new poll data from Janet Brown Opinion Research indicates most are ready for a future with less of it. 

They're also concerned about the consequences of climate change, the survey commissioned by CBC News suggests. 

Twelve per cent of respondents listed oil and gas as one of the top issues in the October survey. It's a sharp decline from 2018, when that number was 40 per cent, and the province was recovering from a crash in both oil prices and jobs in the sector.

Now, oil and gas companies are recording their most lucrative year ever, and the provincial government is raking in the royalties. 

It's a dizzying reversal of fortunes. In the early months of COVID, oil prices had dropped below $0 per barrel. Revenue from non-renewable sources is now forecast to be $28.4 billion by the end of the 2022-23 fiscal year compared with $5.4 billion four years earlier.

But ask any politician about the province's largest industry and you can quickly cross off the cliché bingo square for "getting off the natural resource roller-coaster." 

Albertans are wary of that whiplash, too. 

According to the poll, 59 per cent of respondents said they thought transitioning away from oil and gas would benefit Alberta's economy in the long term. 

But it's more complex than just turning off the taps. Sixty per cent said oil and gas will still be Alberta's most important industry 25 years from now. Those results are largely unchanged from four years ago. 

While Albertans think oil will continue to lead Alberta's economy, they're also concerned about the impact the industry has on the environment. The majority of survey respondents — 62 per cent — said they thought more should be done to address climate change.