Alberta premier says border with the U.S. is 'leaky' — here's what the numbers say

Facing the prospect of widespread tariffs that could plunge the Canadian economy into recession, Alberta's premier is responding to the concerns of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump, in the hopes of avoiding the 25 per cent tariffs if illegal immigration and drug flow are not addressed.

"Well, look, let's stop the leaky border first. Let's stop the illegal migration first. Let's stop the fentanyl first. Let's meet our NATO commitment first, and let's see where we get with the Americans," Danielle Smith said last week on CBC's Power & Politics.

After premiers held an emergency meeting Wednesday with the federal government about the threatened tariffs, Smith said the province would act "urgently and decisively" to patrol the shared border between Alberta and Montana, with details still to come.

Smith noted the problem was "much more serious" at the U.S.-Mexico border, but said that didn't diminish the need for provinces to crack down on illegal migrants and drug smuggling at the U.S.-Canada border.

To be certain, the smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl — which Trump has singled out as being a chief concern — has historically been an issue of significantly higher magnitude at the Mexican border.

Approximately 20 kilograms of fentanyl were seized at the Canada-U.S. border from October 2023 to September 2024, compared to more than 9,500 kilograms at the Mexico-U.S. border, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data.

Alberta's share is minor. The Havre border patrol sector, which covers most of the border between Canada and Montana, seized around three pounds (around 1.4 kilograms) of fentanyl in fiscal year 2024, according to CBP data. The Seattle Field Office also had three pounds, for a total of six (2.7 kilograms).

Across the Havre sector, the number of "encounters" — referring to those people apprehended for sneaking over the border between the ports of entry, according to a CBP spokesperson — vary per month, with 100 registered in fiscal year 2024.

In the view of Alberta's public safety minister, any amount of fentanyl seized at the Montana border is a problem.

"[It] should not be taken lightly as it has the potential to harm thousands of people. The problem at the border is not only what has been seized but what has not been seized, increasing the concern for public safety," Mike Ellis wrote in a statement.

Mount Royal University criminologist Kelly Sundberg, a former officer of the Canada Border Services Agency, said numbers of reported seized drugs are low, but actual numbers are likely higher.

"There's not as many officers on the northern border … there's a lot of stuff that gets through that border without anyone knowing," Sundberg said.

"Without question, yes, they seized a few kilograms, but you could probably times that by 10."

In Sundberg's view, Alberta's plan illustrates how neglected border security has been in Canada for the past decade.