Alberta could see record COVID-19 hospitalizations within 14 days, early warning system projections suggest
CBC
Projections from Alberta Health Services' COVID-19 early warning system suggest the current wave could send more people to hospital than at any point in the pandemic, within a couple of weeks.
A graph showing the inpatient hospital bed forecast — excluding ICU beds — from the AHS COVID-19 early warning system was leaked onto social media Friday afternoon, AHS has confirmed to CBC News.
The graph shows the actual number of hospitalizations that have occurred so far, and three potential scenarios — low, medium and high. The projections showed 14 days into the future.
Non-ICU COVID-19 hospitalizations in Alberta peaked at 868 on Sept. 27, provincial data shows. But each projected scenario suggests significantly more Albertans will be sent to hospital in the current wave.
As of Jan. 5, non-ICU hospitalizations sat at 448, data shows. The early warning system's low scenario predicts that figure will more than double to 968 in two weeks' time.
The medium scenario suggests the number of non-ICU patients could reach 1,278; the high scenario suggests non-ICU hospitalizations could reach 1,541.
The early warning system is a tool AHS uses to predict potential demand on the province's health-care system and allow it to plan for those changes in demand, according to a statement sent to CBC News through a spokesperson.
"AHS is continually monitoring and planning for all eventualities to ensure we can continue to care for patients, and keep Albertans safe," the statement said.
"Plans are in place to increase acute care capacity, with appropriate staffing and resources should it be needed. The current projected need can be met."
The best way to prevent hospitalizations is to follow public health restrictions and guidelines, staying home when sick and to get vaccinated, the statement adds.
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