AIADMK and BJP Split: Diminishing electoral returns a factor | Data Premium

AIADMK snaps ties with BJP-led NDA due to diminishing returns & anti-BJP sentiment in TN. Tables show AIADMK's vote share reduced in 2022 urban local body elections, while DMK's remained same. AIADMK's stronghold in western region had lowest anti-BJP sentiment. Poor transfer of AIADMK's votes to BJP also a factor

Last week, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) snapped ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance. The separation was sudden given that the AIADMK supported a series of Central government decisions such as the dilution of Article 370, the farm Bills, and the idea of simultaneous elections.

Its discomfort with the BJP’s Tamil Nadu leadership apart, the AIADMK’s ostensible rationale for the break up has also got to do with the fact that the alliance has so far provided only diminishing returns. 

Table 1 | The table shows the overall and contested vote shares secured by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance and AIADMK-led alliance in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. (*c = change in % points (pp))

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Among the AIADMK’s partners and even compared to the DMK’s allies, the BJP’s contested vote share of 34.2% was the lowest, which hints at a poor transfer of the AIADMK’s votes to the BJP compared to others.

Table 2 | The table looks at the effect of BJP’s presence on Tamil Nadu’s social fabric. All figures in %.

The Centre for the Study of Developing Society-Lokniti’s post-poll study in 2021 also brought out this dissatisfaction of the AIADMK voter (Table 2). On being asked whether the BJP’s rise will be detrimental or good for the State’s social fabric, the highest share (32%) of the alliance’s voters said it was “bad”, while 25% said it was “good”. Among the rest, 31% said it “doesn’t make a difference”, and 12% said they had no opinion. This could explain the jubilation of the AIADMK’s cadre at the news that its leadership had decided to break relations with the BJP; they seem enthused about the return of voters who had left the party.