种种迹象表明：美国经济衰退即将来临

美国经济学教授安东尼·奥布里恩近日发文称，由于美联储采取了错误的货币政策，美国很可能将在未来一年内陷入经济衰退。

美国理海大学经济学教授安东尼·奥布里恩（Anthony O’Brien）近日发文称，由于美联储采取了错误的货币政策，美国很可能将在未来一年内陷入经济衰退。

The US economy seems headed for a recession later this year or early next year. A recession would make clear that the new monetary policy strategy the Federal Reserve announced in August 2020 has been a failure.

种种迹象表明，美国可能在今年晚些时候或明年年初陷入经济衰退，从而证实美联储在2020年8月宣布的新货币政策以失败告终。

The Fed’s new strategy represented a break with the approach it had adopted in response to The Great Inflation of 1968-1982, when inflation eventually soared above 10 percent. Although oil price shocks contributed to the Great Inflation, most economists believe that Fed policy failures were the reason the inflation was so severe.

美联储的新战略意味着背离1968年至1982年大通胀时习得的应对策略，当时通胀率突破了10%。尽管油价危机引发了大通胀，但是多数经济学家认为美联储最初的决策失误是当时通货膨胀如此严重的原因。

The Great Inflation taught the Fed that monetary policy should preempt increases in inflation before they became embedded in the economy. Changes in monetary policy can take a year to have their full effect, so the Fed needed to begin raising interest rates when the unemployment rate dropped below the so-called natural rate of unemployment, even if inflation had not yet begun to accelerate. The Fed was still following this approach in 2015, when it raised its target for the federal funds rate even though its preferred measure of inflation was still below its 2 percent target.

那次大通胀让美联储学会一个道理，那就是应该赶在通货膨胀对经济产生深入影响之前施行货币政策。货币政策的变动需要一年时间才能完全发挥作用，因此美联储应该在失业率降到自然失业率以下时就上调利率，即使那时候通胀还未加速。2015年美联储依然遵循这一规律行事，尽管当时通胀率还未达到2%的目标值，但是美联储已经上调了联邦基金的利率。