Federal polls showing a rare, rapid shift — but unclear if numbers will hold
CBC
Recent federal polls have shown a dramatic shift in Canadians' voting preferences, but analysts say there is no guarantee it's a lasting trend.
CBC's Poll Tracker has clocked a massive Conservative lead for the better part of the last two years. But survey results from the past few weeks suggest that lead is quickly evaporating.
An Ipsos poll conducted between Feb. 21 and 24 has the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives among decided voters — though the two-point spread falls well within the 3.8 per cent margin of error.
Still, it's the first time Ipsos has shown the Liberals in the lead in years, erasing a 26-point Conservative lead that the firm tracked six weeks ago.
"Right now, we have a steep curve in favour of the Liberals, the steepest I have seen in my years covering the polls in Canada," said Philippe Fournier, an analyst with 338Canada.com.
Fournier said the rapid gains the Liberals have made can be attributed to three factors: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing he would be stepping down, interest in the party's leadership race and the return of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Earlier this year, CBC's Poll Tracker suggested a Conservative victory was all but certain. While the tracker still calculates a Conservative win as the most likely outcome if an election were held today, it now shows a narrow window of opportunity for the Liberals to come out on top.
"It's a very dramatic shift and really not something you often see. You rarely even see it in election campaigns. So to see it outside of an election campaign it's pretty surprising," Éric Grenier, a polls analyst with The Writ who runs CBC's Poll Tracker, said.
Some polls have factored in the possibility of a new Liberal leader. A Leger survey conducted between Feb. 21 and 23 suggested that Liberal support with Trudeau still in charge has the Liberals trailing the Conservatives. But with the possibility of former central banker Mark Carney at the helm, the Liberals jump ahead of the Tories by two percentage points — though that still falls within the margin of error.
Grenier suggested that even the Liberal brand under Trudeau has regained some support due to Trump's tariff threats and talk of making Canada the 51st state.
"There is a rally around the flag effect I think taking place here. The Liberals are benefiting from Donald Trump's attacks on Canada … even if you still mentioned Justin Trudeau, the Liberals are doing far better than they've done in the last year and a half," he said.
While Liberals might be feeling reinvigorated by the latest numbers, the NDP's fortunes appear to be the opposite.
The rebound of the Liberals appears to be in part due to the waning favourability of Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats.
"It really has put the NDP in a tough place, because clearly the NDP is not making any gains … and so perhaps what we're seeing is strategic voting on steroids," Fournier said.
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