Experts project record low poverty in 2021 resulting from COVID relief

Researchers are projecting a record-low U.S. poverty rate in 2021, and they're pointing to federal COVID-19 relief as the driving factor behind the shift.

Fellows at the Urban Institute, a liberal think tank, estimate that the poverty rate in 2018 was higher at 13.9% based on the Supplemental Poverty Measure, and they also estimate that number will be cut in half this year. "These are really large reductions in poverty — the largest short-term reductions we’ve seen," Urban Institute senior fellow Laura Wheaton, who authored the report fellows Linda Giannarelli and Ilham Dehry, told The New York Times. Because the checks have already been dolled out and virus-driven increases in food stamps and unemployment benefits are nearing their end, researchers also estimate that the significant poverty reduction may be short-lived.