Can some States serve as a bellwether for the third wave?

Both in the first wave and second wave of COVID-19, increase in daily cases was first reported in Maharashtra, then Kerala and Delhi

Both in the first and second wave, an increase in daily reported cases was first reported in Maharashtra, followed by Kerala and Delhi. These could be due to several reasons including greater integrity in testing and reporting data. Can a sharp and sustained increase in daily cases in these States serve as an early warning of an impending third wave? Senior Scientist at Chennai’s National Institute of Epidemiology,Professor of Physics and Biology at Ashoka University and epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India, Bengaluru explain the advantages and shortcomings of such an approach. We should not make the mistake of assuming that because there is more light under the lamppost, what we are searching for can be found there. Given that these States have traditionally recorded well, it would be good to pay attention to them, but in a large and diverse country, a new variant of concern could emerge anywhere. We need to beef up testing and surveillance across India and not just in those States. It would be best if we looked for an unusual increase in cases, novel symptomatology and new variants across India, paying special attention to large and crowded cities, and not just to Kerala and Maharashtra. For example, Bengal is potentially another hotspot for a new wave to emerge, given the diversity of sequences obtained from there and Kolkata, its capital, is dense enough for a new variant to spread fast.